Goldman Sachs’ top ten trends for the tech industry in 2026 focus on core sectors such as AI servers, optical communications, Apple’s foldable screens, semiconductors, intelligent driving, and satellite communications, revealing structural investment opportunities driven by technological innovation and supply chain shifts.

In a recent report, Goldman Sachs’ analyst team led by Allen Chang pointed out that AI server shipments will experience explosive growth in 2026. The penetration rate of ASIC chips is expected to rise to 40%, driving a year-over-year surge of more than 200% in 800G/1.6T optical module shipments. The accelerated penetration of specialized ASIC chips will propel the AI server and optical communications industries to new trillion-dollar heights.

In consumer electronics, $Apple (AAPL)$’s upcoming foldable iPhone is expected to be a powerful catalyst for the smartphone market and a central focus for investors. Meanwhile, the PC market continues to face severe challenges, though leading players remain resilient.

Goldman Sachs emphasized that demand for AI-related technology and high-end hardware will continue to drive earnings growth across China’s semiconductor, optical communication, and PCB (printed circuit board) supply chains. Simultaneously, emerging sectors such as intelligent driving, AI software, and Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites are accelerating their commercialization due to policy support and technological breakthroughs, providing diversified opportunities for investors.

AI Servers: The Strong Rise of ASICs and Connectivity Upgrades

The AI server market is undergoing a structural adjustment. Goldman Sachs expects rack-level AI server shipments to surge from 19,000 units in 2025 to 50,000 units in 2026.

A key trend is the diversification of platforms and enhanced network connectivity. Due to their energy efficiency advantages in specific AI workloads, ASIC chips are expected to reach a 40% penetration rate in 2026 and further rise to 45% in 2027.

This trend will make customers more dependent on top-tier suppliers with strong design and manufacturing capabilities, such as Hon Hai and $Foxconn Industrial Internet (601138.SH)$.

Optical Communications: Explosion of 800G/1.6T Optical Modules

The optical communications sector will directly benefit from the expansion of AI infrastructure. As data center networks upgrade from 400G to 800G/1.6T, and the application of Silicon Photonics and CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) technologies increases, demand for optical transceivers will see explosive growth.

Goldman Sachs highlighted that the rising penetration of ASIC chips will further support optical module demand, as ASICs rely more heavily on networking capabilities to execute AI workloads.

Thermal Management: Accelerated Penetration of Liquid Cooling

As computing density increases, thermal management technology is reaching an upgrade inflection point. Goldman Sachs noted that the penetration of liquid cooling technology will rise significantly, particularly in the ASIC AI server domain. To handle the thermal design power (TDP) challenges brought by higher computing power, the supply chain will accelerate its migration toward liquid cooling solutions, benefiting thermal component suppliers like AVC and Auras.

ODM Manufacturers: U.S. Capacity Layout as the Competitive Edge

In the ODM (Original Design Manufacturer) sector, geopolitics and supply chain resilience have become critical considerations. Goldman Sachs believes that manufacturers with firm commitments or capacity plans in the United States will outperform the market. ODMs with strong R&D capabilities, vertical integration advantages, and exposure to comprehensive chipset platforms—such as Hon Hai, Wistron, and Wiwynn—will be preferred by the market.

PCs: Severe Market Challenges, But Leaders Remain Resilient

The PC market faces multiple headwinds in 2026. Goldman Sachs analysis suggests that the Windows 10 replacement cycle is nearing its end, growth expectations for AI PCs have already been priced in by the market, and rising memory costs may lead to lower product specifications or higher prices. In this context, only global market leaders (such as Lenovo) are expected to remain resilient, thanks to stronger supply chain bargaining power and exposure to high-end products.

Smartphones: Will the Foldable iPhone Stand Alone?

The report indicates that Apple will launch a foldable iPhone in 2026, with estimated shipments between 11 million and 35 million units, serving as a powerful catalyst for the smartphone market. The rising penetration of high-end foldable models will drive earnings growth for related component companies.

Goldman Sachs noted that this change in form factor will be a core driver, as the launch of a foldable iPhone will attract consumers and support terminal demand. Although rising memory costs pose a potential risk, high-end branding and new features like foldable screens will reduce consumer price sensitivity.

PCBs: High-End Capacity Shortage Leading to Price and Volume Gains

Despite market disagreements over long-term supply and demand dynamics, Goldman Sachs believes PCB demand remains solid.

Specifically, high-end CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) and PCB suppliers will face a favorable supply-demand landscape, benefiting from increased AI server shipments and ASIC penetration. As CCL grades upgrade to M8+ and M9, the average selling price (ASP) of high-end products is expected to grow by 20-30% annually in 2026 and 2027.

China Semiconductors: AI Driving a New Round of Expansion

The Chinese semiconductor industry will continue its growth momentum. Goldman Sachs is optimistic about the expansion plans of local leaders (such as $SMIC (00981.HK)$ and Hon Hai) in advanced processes, as well as the rise of domestic GPU suppliers.

AI technological innovation and new demand for edge devices (such as AI glasses) will be major drivers. Furthermore, the semiconductor equipment and materials sectors will benefit from the localization trend within the supply chain.

L4 Chips and Robotaxis: Continuous Upgrades in Autonomous Driving

The intelligent driving trend will continue to deepen in 2026. Goldman Sachs expects the popularization of urban NOA (Navigate on Autopilot) and Robotaxis to drive growth for chipset, software, and sensor suppliers. Solutions from companies like Horizon Robotics are being adopted by more vehicle models, while the commercialization process for Robotaxi operators like $Pony.ai (PONY)$ is accelerating, creating new growth poles for the supply chain.

LEO Satellites: Accelerated Launches and Specification Upgrades

The Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite industry is entering an acceleration phase. Goldman Sachs pointed out that with the increase in rocket carrying capacity and the reduction in launch costs, satellite launches will speed up significantly.

Meanwhile, satellite specifications are being upgraded, with bandwidth evolving from single-band to multi-band (Ka, E, V, W). Considering the 5-6 year lifecycle of satellites, replacement demand could start as early as 2026, driving the construction of constellation network infrastructure.